Peak season reveals which businesses are ready to scale. Everything is magnified. Small wins in efficiency become competitive advantages, while minor weaknesses can spiral into something costlier.
Any mistakes you make in peak season sting twice. You risk losing the immediate sale, then watch negative reviews pile up afterwards.
But on a positive note, most peak season failures are entirely avoidable. They stem from predictable pressure points that surface every November and December. By identifying these friction points now and implementing solutions, you’ll prepare yourself for the best Q4 possible.
Let’s explore the five most common fulfilment blunders that trip up retailers during peak season – alongside strategies that’ll keep your operation humming when it matters most.
In this article
Mistake 1: Underestimating Inventory Velocity Changes
Peak season can alter your product mix. Items that sold steadily throughout the year suddenly become dormant, while previously sluggish products turn into bestsellers overnight.
Why This Happens
Consumer behaviour changes dramatically during Q4. Gift-giving priorities, seasonal trends, and promotional pricing can all alter routine sales patterns.
This is especially true in the UK, EU, and much of the US, as peak season marks a characteristically speedy transition from summer to winter, which itself changes the product mix for some retailers before you layer Q4’s shopping events on top.
So a wool jumper that sold five units per month might sell 200 in November. Meanwhile, that popular summer item gathering dust in your warehouse becomes dead weight, hogging valuable space. It can be particularly unpredictable for businesses without comprehensive sales data from prior years.
The Potential Cost
When inventory velocity calculations go awry, the consequences snowball quickly:
- Stockouts on high-demand items during your most lucrative period
- Excess storage fees for slow-moving inventory taking up premium warehouse space
- Rush shipping costs to replenish popular products
- Lost sales when customers find alternatives with competitors
How to Avoid It
Start by scrutinising last year’s peak season data and whether your stock can sustain it. Plan for a buffer stock of items likely to experience seasonal surges, while identifying exit strategies for products that typically slow down during the peak season.
Consider whether inventory intelligence software can support you through Q4. Our ControlPort™ software, for example, automatically flags inventory issues such as slow- and fast-moving stock so you can take immediate action.
Mistake 2: Inadequate Packaging Under Pressure
Packaging errors can overwhelm your operation, and, worst of all, hit your all-important product reviews. Q4 is a fantastic opportunity to engage and acquire customers for the entire year, but you can only do that if you deliver perfectly packaged, intact products every time.
Why This Happens
The average fulfilment error rate is widely cited as 1% to 3%, and increases in Q4. The urgency to dispatch orders quickly often overrides careful packaging procedures, and companies frequently recruit additional temporary staff.
The Potential Cost
Shoddy packaging during peak season creates multiple problems:
- Damaged products requiring costly replacements and return shipping
- Wrong items shipped, creating customer service nightmares during your busiest period
- Increased returns processing just when your team is already stretched thin
- Negative reviews and social media complaints that can damage your reputation for months
How to Avoid It
Build bulletproof packaging protocols before peak season begins. This means creating clear, visual packaging guides that work even when your team is under pressure. Use barcode scanning systems to verify that products are correct before packaging.
Consider automating as much of your packaging process as possible. Professional 3PL providers maintain packaging accuracy even during peak volumes because they’ve systematised these processes. At J&J, we maintain a 99.9% pick and pack accuracy rate, even during the most intense shopping periods, thanks to systems engineered to maintain quality during peak periods.
Mistake 3: Overwhelmed Returns Processing
Returns don’t pause politely until after peak season ends – they start flooding back within hours of major shopping events.
While you’re still processing new Black Friday orders, returned items from impulse purchases begin to arrive, creating a dual pressure that’s known to impact even well-drilled fulfilment teams.
Why This Happens
You only need to look at the stats to see why returns become so challenging through Q4.
Returns rates peaked at a record-breaking 17.7% during the week before Christmas and Boxing Week in 2024, with over $122 billion worth of purchases already returned by the first week of January 2025.
In some industries, such as fashion, almost a third of all items are returned. Retailers have started competing more heavily on returns, offering longer return windows, which further dials up the pressure.
Additionally, the entire returns process often becomes fragmented during Q4, with buyers returning orders without order numbers, original packaging, or in a condition that makes them unfit for resale.
Then there’s the sharp rise in returns fraud, which has reached unprecedented levels in 2024 and 2025.
The Potential Cost
Inadequate returns processing is a thorn in the side of Q4, creating many expensive bottlenecks:
- Inventory that can’t be restocked quickly, reducing available stock during peak demand
- Customer service overwhelm as return queries multiply
- Cash flow issues as refunds are delayed by processing backlogs
- Increased fraud as overwhelmed teams struggle to properly inspect returned items
How to Avoid It
Returns issues are often viewed as an intractable challenge that has to be factored into the bottom line and effectively written off, but there are still measures retailers can take.
First, analyse your returns commitments and determine how they might cost you in a worst-case scenario. While tempting to match long-range returns windows, it’s not a risk worth taking for everyone.
Be honest with customers about the condition in which items must be returned, and prioritise different tolerances for different items. For example, it might not be worth confronting a customer about the poor condition of a $/£5 to $/£10 item. It’s a different story for one worth $/£1,000 or more.
Build returns processing capacity before you need it. Create efficient workflows that can handle three to four times your normal return volume without breaking down.
Consider partnering with a fulfilment provider that offers fully managed returns. We handle the entire process, including inspection, inventory updates, and refund processing, so you can focus your efforts on growth rather than reverse logistics.
Mistake 4: Ignoring Micro-Seasonality Within Peak Season
It might be tempting to view Q4 as one big peak season, but experienced operators know it’s actually several distinct mini-seasons rolled into one.
Overlooking the quarter’s micro-seasons and shopping days can leave you with the wrong stock in the wrong place at the wrong time.
Why This Happens
Consumer mindsets can change dramatically from week to week through Q4:
- October: Immediate gratification purchases dominate. Halloween items peak in the final two weeks, then drop off a cliff. Super-organised shoppers start early gift-buying.
- November: Early month sees steady gift buying, Black Friday explodes with deal-seekers, late November moves toward thoughtful gift selection with reasonable delivery windows.
- December: Early December is peak gift-buying season, mid-December brings urgency with rapid shipping expectations, and late December is pure panic mode – next-day delivery or digital gifts become critical very late in the month.
Each micro-season creates variance and nuance in purchasing patterns, return behaviours, and delivery expectations. The transition from one to another is often abrupt.
The Potential Cost
Ignoring micro-seasonality taxes retailers primarily through lost opportunities and overspill from one phase to another:
- Halloween stock still clogging warehouses when Christmas inventory needs the space
- Gift-focused marketing campaigns running when customers are buying for themselves
- Staffing levels optimised for average peak demand rather than specific spikes
- Wrong product mix in regional warehouses as different marketing strategies kick in
How to Avoid It
If you have comprehensive sales data from previous years, start there to gauge how sales vary across the quarter.
Don’t solely look at overall volume – dig into which specific products sell when, and how customer behaviour changes throughout Q4. Think about what campaigns you’re planning to run, when, and what products they involve.
You don’t want campaigns to bleed into each other. Halloween promotions should end sharply on November 1st. Gift guides work brilliantly in November but become practically irrelevant for panic shoppers who dominate late December.
Mistake 5: Poor Communication During Delays
Delays are inherently unpredictable, so even the most well-prepared operations could experience them during peak season. Since some delays are impossible to prevent, communication is one of your only moats to protect against customer attrition and negative reviews.
Why This Happens
There are a million and one potential causes for delays in Q4. Some might stem from internal factors, such as mismatches between listed inventory and actual stock, or picking and packing errors. Others might be external, such as bad weather delays or strikes.
In all cases, it’s vital to keep customers in the loop, remain transparent, and offer alternatives when possible, but without overpromising. Keeping expectations fair and aligned is usually the best course of action.
The Potential Cost
Poor communication during delays amplifies every problem:
- Customer anxiety turns into frustration when they’re kept in the dark
- Social media complaints multiply when customers feel ignored
- Customer service volumes increase as worried customers seek updates
- Future sales are lost as customers lose trust in your reliability
How to Avoid It
The golden rule of peak season communication: tell customers bad news before they have to ask for it.
Set up trigger-based messaging that automatically sends updates when orders hit certain delays – 24 hours past expected dispatch, 48 hours past promised delivery, or when carriers report exceptions.
Generic “your order is delayed” messages create more problems than they solve. Customers immediately assume the worst and flood customer service channels with refund requests.
Instead, be as specific as possible. “Your order is running 2 days late due to high demand – new expected delivery is Friday 15th December, still in time for Christmas” gives customers something concrete to work with.
You can also create different communication playbooks for different delay scenarios. A “delay due to heavy snow” feels temporary and unavoidable – customers accept it. A “processing delay” sounds like you’ve messed up, and likelier to result in tickets and lost customers.
The J&J Global Fulfilment Q4 Advantage
Q4 is where fulfilment operations either shine or crumble. Many providers buckle under the pressure of surging order volumes, but we’ve engineered our entire infrastructure to thrive in the face of these make-or-break months:
- 99.9% pick and pack accuracy that doesn’t budge under pressure
- 98% same-day dispatch rates when everyone else is making excuses
- Intelligent inventory management and demand forecasting that identifies issues ahead of impact
- Fully managed returns processing that scales with the Q4 chaos
With 15 years of fulfilment experience under our belts and counting, we know exactly where operations break down – and more importantly, how to bulletproof yours against each mistake we’ve listed here, as well as many others.
Ready to unlock peak season’s full potential for your business? Let’s explore how J&J Global Fulfilment can supercharge your Q4 results.
FAQs About Peak Season Fulfilment
Q: How early should I start preparing for peak season challenges?
A: Serious preparation should begin in early September at the latest. By October, you will be working with the systems and partnerships you’ve already established. Major operational changes become riskier once peak season kicks off in earnest.
Q: What’s the most common mistake that damages brands during peak season?
A: While it’s hard to nail down a singular answer, poor communication during delays is a big one. Even veteran retailers experience delays during peak season, but brands that communicate proactively maintain customer trust, while those that don’t often lose customers permanently.
Q: Can a 3PL help avoid these peak season mistakes?
A: Professional 3PLs are specifically designed to handle peak season pressures. They have established systems, multiple carrier relationships, and proven processes that prevent these common mistakes. The key is partnering with a provider who has demonstrated peak season excellence, and not just adequate year-round performance.
Q: How do I know if my current fulfilment setup can handle peak season?
A: Stress test your systems before November. Process test orders at three times your normal volume, simulate return workflows, and verify that your communication systems work under pressure. If you discover problems during testing, you have time to fix them. If you wait until Black Friday, it’s too late.
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